4
that upgrading from 2G to 3G increases the
GDP impact of mobile connectivity by 15% and
that upgrading from 2G to 4G increases the
impact by 25%.
28
Analyses that attempted to
identify how broadband connectivity conveys
benefits further underscore the importance of
4G adoption. A World Bank study identified
six foundational online activities—news,
government, health, education, shopping, and
social media—and that realizing the benefits
of these foundational activities requires a
minimum of 6GB per month.
29
A4AI has
emphasized that realizing the benefits of these
more advanced services requires “meaningful
connectivity” that allows individuals to use the
Internet every day using an appropriate device
with enough data and a fast connection.
30
Consistent with this concern, industry observers
have cautioned that the fact that most mobile
Internet users are still using 2G and 3G in most
LMICs is preventing them from realizing the
full benefits of Internet connectivity.
31
Using
education as an example, 2G and 3G support
file sharing only in limited formats, while 4G
and 5G can deliver seamless online interactions
such as video tutorials and interactive learning
exercises.
32
Available data suggest that adoption of mobile
broadband would enable users to access these
services. For example, upgrading users from
2G to 3G increases their data capacity by 9.4
times and data performance by 112 times.
Upgrading users from 3G to 4G increases data
capacity by 4.2 times and data performance by
4.6 times. 5G is expected to deliver higher peak
data speeds, lower latencies, and higher data
capacity. By 2027, 5G subscriptions across the
globe are forecast to reach 4.4 billion, nearly
half of all mobile subscriptions.
33
Studies conducted at the country level have
consistently found that adoption of mobile
broadband services such as 3G, 4G, and 5G
would provide significant economic and social
benefits:
•
An ITU study of 145 countries between
2010-18 found that a 10% increase in
unique subscriber penetration for 3G or
higher services yielded a 1.50% increase
in GDP driven by a 1.76% increase in
middle-income countries and a 1.98%
increase in low-income countries.
34
This
effect was particularly strong in Africa
(2.46% increase), Asia Pacific middle- and
low-income countries (2.44%), European
low-income countries (2.00%), Arab states
(1.82%), and Latin American and Caribbean
states (1.73%).
•
A UN-OHRLLS and ITU study of 91 LDCs,
LLDCs, and SIDS from 2000-17 found that
a 10% increase in 3G, 4G, and WiMAX
penetration generated a 2.8% increase in
GDP.
35
• IHS Markit has predicted that by 2035,
5G will enable USD 13.2 trillion of global
economic output and will represent about
5.0% of all global real output.
36
Studies conducted at the household level
that used consumption as a proxy for income
corroborated these findings:
•
Surveys conducted in Senegal in 2011 and
2017 indicate that household consumption
is 14% higher and that the extreme poverty
rate is 10% lower in areas covered by 3G.
37
• Three rounds of household surveys
conducted in Nigeria between 2010-16
revealed that at least one year of 3G or 4G
mobile broadband coverage increased
household consumption by 6% and
reduced extreme and moderate poverty by
4.3% and 2.6% respectively.
38
• Three rounds of surveys administered in
Tanzania between 2008 to 2013 found that
3G coverage was associated with a 10%
increase in household consumption and
that one year of coverage was associated
with a 3%-8% increase in labour force
participation, wage employment, and non-
farm employment.
39
The benefits from 3G, 4G, and 5G mobile
broadband connectivity appear to have
increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.
For example, a new ITU study that extended
the previous ITU study found that including
2019 and 2020 in the analysis caused the GDP
increase associated with a 10% increase in
mobile broadband penetration to grow from
1.50% to 1.60% worldwide, driven by a 2.04%
increase in GDP in low-income countries and
a 162% increase in GDP growth in middle-
income countries.
40
Strategies Towards Universal Smartphone Access